Canada’s Mortgage Outlook: What’s happening in Sept 2025 & What It Means for You
Canada’s Mortgage Outlook: What’s happening in Sept 2025 & What It Means for You
1. Surge in Home Sales — Waiting for Rate Relief?
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales rose for the fifth straight month in August, reaching the strongest August performance since 2021. Reuters
The gains were led by Montreal, Greater Vancouver, and Ottawa, while the GTA lagged behind. Prices, however, are still down modestly about 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Reuters
What it means for you: Buyer demand is bouncing back. If you’re a buyer—this might be the green light you’ve been waiting for (depending on rate trends). Sellers—it’s signs of renewed interest, but still a soft market.
2. Bank of Canada Rate Decision Looms This Wednesday (Sept 17)
A Reuters poll suggests the Bank will likely cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points, taking it from 2.75% to 2.50%. Another cut may follow before the year ends. Reuters
Economic headwinds like job losses (~66,000 jobs lost in August), a 1.6% GDP contraction, and sticky core inflation (around 3%) are key triggers for a cut. Reuters+2True North Mortgage+2
Why it matters: Lower BoC rates typically lead to lower variable mortgage rates, and can eventually nudge fixed rates lower as well. Great news if you’re waiting to renew or lock in.
3. Current Mortgage Rate Snapshot
As of mid-September, 3- and 5-year fixed broker rates are hovering around 3.9%, with some 3-year fixed offers as low as 3.69%. NerdWallet
In B.C., you can find fixed rates below 4%, and variable rates are generally around 4%. NerdWallet
Tip: If a rate cut happens Sept 17, hold tight you're in a good position for better offers. But if you can’t risk rising rates post-decision, locking now may still make sense.
4. Mortgage Renewal Wave Coming Soon
BMO economists say a wave of mortgage renewals (especially those locked in at ultra-low rates in 2021) will peak in mid-2026, and could expose many borrowers to sticker shock when rates reset. Investment Executive
The Bank of Canada’s own analysis says about 60% of renewals from 2025–26 are likely to come with increased payments compared to Dec 2024 levels, especially for 5-year fixed holders. Bank of Canada
Action item: If you’ve got a renewal coming up in the next 12–18 months, let's start planning now. Whether that means locking a longer term, restructuring payments, or exploring partial refinancing, early action is your friend.
5. Beyond Numbers: Affordability Still Tight
Even with mounting economic pressures, home prices haven’t plunged (yet), and affordability remains a real hurdle in markets like Greater Vancouver and Toronto.
CREA recorded about 40,257 home sales in August the highest in four years. Mortgage Rates Canada
This shows demand is there but many buyers are still being squeezed by bigger down payments, qualifying rate hurdles, and cost of living.
Takeaways & What You Can Do Now
| 🚪 Scenario | 📉 What It Could Mean | ✅ Smart Moves |
|---|---|---|
| Buying Soon | Possible rate cuts ahead | Get pre-approved now |
| Renewing Mortgage | Risk of higher payments | Explore lock-in vs. variable |
| Refinancing | Potential sweet spot if rates dip | Compare refinance vs. staying put |
| Watching Prices | Sales up, prices down slightly | Stay ready with down payment & credit |
Final Thoughts
The stage is set: a potential BoC rate cut, improving borrowing conditions, and a clear renewal crunch ahead. If you're serious about making the most of this moment whether buying, renewing, or refinancing we can work through your options together. Let’s get you prepared, not surprised.
Curious about how your individual situation fits into this picture? I’m here to help break it down with a touch of mortgage magic.
Rob Skoko
Mortgage Broker
MAXIMUM Mortgage Solutions – DLC
📱 604.771.4085
📧 rob@skoko.ca
🌐 skokomortgages.ca
