Canada's Jobs Report Surprised Everyone. Here's What It Means for Mortgage Rates.
Strong Jobs Report Keeps Rate Cuts on Hold. Here’s What to Watch Next.
Strong Jobs Report Keeps Rate Cuts on Hold. Here’s What to Watch.
Canada’s labour market surprised to the upside in June. The economy added 18,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate ticked down from 6.6% to 6.5%. More telling than the headline: private sector employers drove the bulk of the growth, adding 32,000 positions, with full-time work leading the charge. Wages grew 3.3% year over year, which matters because that pace is still comfortably above where the Bank of Canada would want to see it if it’s seriously thinking about cutting rates.
Here’s the part worth paying attention to. Bond yields had actually eased in the days leading into the report, as if markets were pricing in a softer print. After the numbers came out, yields reversed course. Fixed mortgage rates have stayed broadly stable through all of this, but the window some borrowers were counting on may have shifted out a few months.
The labour market is in better shape than expected, which gives the Bank of Canada cover to stay put. If a purchase, renewal, or refinance is on your radar, having your strategy in place before the July 15 announcement is a smarter play than reacting after.
What This Means for You
- Locking in a new mortgage: Rates are stable right now, which is a workable window. With the strong jobs data reducing pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut, waiting for lower fixed rates carries more risk than it did a month ago.
- Renewing: A 3-year fixed still makes sense here. You’re not overcommitting, and you stay flexible to revisit things if conditions improve over the next couple of years.
- On variable: The Bank of Canada is expected to hold at July 15 given the labour market strength. The next real conversation about cuts may come in September or October, depending on how inflation prints this summer.
A south-facing three-bedroom condo in the heart of Burnaby North, freshly updated and move-in ready. Strathmore Towers is a well-maintained complex with a full suite of outdoor amenities including a pool, hot tub, sauna, gym, and tennis courts. The unit comes with two parking stalls and a storage locker, which is increasingly rare at this price point. Lougheed Town Centre SkyTrain station is steps away, Lougheed Mall is a short walk, SFU is minutes up the hill, and Keswick Park is right around the corner. For buyers looking for space, location, and a price that doesn’t require a perfect market to work, this one checks a lot of boxes.
| Purchase price | $689,900 |
| Minimum down payment | $43,990 |
| CMHC premium | $27,128.22 |
| Total mortgage amount | $673,038.22 |
| Mortgage type | 3-yr fixed at 3.99% |
| Amortization | 30 years |
| Bi-weekly payment | $1,475.36 |
A 3-year fixed is a strong fit for the current environment. You lock in a competitive rate without committing to a full 5 years while the rate picture still has room to shift.
Rates are subject to change at any time. This example is for informational purposes only. Individual qualification and terms will vary. Closing costs typically range between 1–4% of the purchase price and may include, but are not limited to, property transfer tax (where applicable), legal/notary fees, fire insurance, home inspection fees, title insurance, compliance letters, and other closing costs. Reach out to get your personalized numbers.
Coming up this Wednesday: The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision is scheduled for July 15, 2026. With a stronger-than-expected jobs report in hand, markets are firmly pricing in a hold. Watch for signals about the pace of future cuts through the rest of 2026.
The information in this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice. Mortgage rates, terms, and financing examples are subject to change and individual qualification. All financing figures shown are estimates based on the information provided. Closing costs typically range between 1–4% of the purchase price and may include, but are not limited to, property transfer tax (where applicable), legal/notary fees, fire insurance, home inspection fees, title insurance, compliance letters, and other closing costs. Please consult with a licensed mortgage professional to discuss your specific situation. Rob Skoko is a licensed mortgage broker in BC and Alberta. MAXIMUM Mortgage Solutions – MA - abw.
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